THE COMING OF A POSTAL PLAGUE

The following is a perspective by postal commentator Gene Del Polito for Direct magazine. The views expressed are solely the author's.

One of the most fascinating history books you're ever likely to read is the book by Barbara Tuchman, "A Distant Mirror." In it, she does a phenomenal job portraying what life was like on the European continent during the 14th century. One of the most notable events of that century was the spread of bubonic plague, the "Black Death" as it was called, throughout the continent.

Now, in the early years of the 14th century, Europe was a thriving hub of human civilization. The population had grown steadily; industry was everywhere; and, despite the shortcomings of the continent's social organization, it wasn't all that bad a place or time to be living.

Then, the rats came -- first on the boats of Genoese sailers in southern European ports, and then throughout the continent. The plague bacillus was carried by rats within their intestines, and it was communicated to humans by way of the infected fleas that lived off the rats, rat droppings, and rat bites. Once the symptoms appeared, you typically had 48-72 hours of an excruciatingly agonizing death.

The effects of the plague on Europe were catastrophic. Overall, Europe's population was reduced by about a third. In some areas, whole villages disappeared off the face of the Earth. The economic impacts of the plague brought about changes to the European economy that were unprecedented -- none of them good.

So, what's all this got to do with postal? Well, in a way, the direct mail industry is about to feel the effects of a bubonic plague of its own. Only in this instance, the plague will take the form of double-digit postal rate increases. Nonetheless, to many businesses whose interests are tied to the vitality of mail, the effects could be equally devastating. As in the case of 14th century Europe, this postal plague could bring the lives of many businesses to an end. The adverse effects will be felt not only by the Postal Service, but also by the hundreds of businesses across the United States that are in the business of using mail or supporting others in the use of mail for business communication and commerce.

Unlike the plague of the 14th century, we know what will cause the 21st century's postal plague. It will be the saddling of unnecessary postal burdens on the shoulders of mailers because of the imposition of an escrow of postal retirement reform savings. The only question is: Can we do anything to prevent this?